## Polands thriving regulated gaming sector is aiding in the reduction of offshore market share – Regulation – iGB
**H2 A fresh gambling capital study indicates that the expansion of Poland’s regulated gambling sector is diminishing the market share of offshore contenders – however, it emphasizes that this could be further lessened.**
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The expansion of Poland’s regulated gambling sector has aided in the reduction of offshore market share.
The study, commissioned by Polish lottery operator Totalizator Sportowy, estimates that unlicensed operators generated PLN 6.274 billion in gambling revenue in 2020.
This represents a 25.6% market share, with a further PLN 18.2 billion generated through licensed gambling operators or through Totalizator Sportowy’s online casino.
This comes after modifications to the country’s gambling law, which introduced a 12% turnover tax on online sports betting operators and granted the country’s regulator the authority to block offshore websites.
The re-regulation appears to have ushered in a period of rapid growth for the online sports betting vertical, with revenue growing from an estimated PLN 9.991 billion in 2018 to PLN 15 billion in 2020. According to H2, the market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% between 2016 and 2026.
iGB’s primary data partner added that the legal online casino, which launched in 2019, is projected to generate PLN 6.752 billion in revenue by 2026.
David Henwood, the leader of H2, highlighted that over 120 online platforms are providing services to Polish players without official authorization. Numerous other operators are accepting wagers from the country but are not actively promoting their services to the populace. He indicated that roughly ten firms possess licenses in Malta, Curaçao, and Gibraltar, which represent about 80% of offshore earnings.
“This situation has resulted in an assessment of the scale of the online gambling black market, which was approximately 6.294 billion Polish zloty in 2020,” Henwood explained. “However, it’s crucial to emphasize that this figure would likely be significantly greater if not for the regulations implemented by the amendment to the Gambling Act in 2017.
“Our analysis reveals that Poland has effectively blocked illicit operator websites and prevented payments compared to several other nations. Nevertheless, regulations, particularly tax regulations, and restrictions on advertising for authorized operators continue to drive customers towards the gray market.”
The 12% turnover tax has prompted many prominent operators to withdraw from the market, and Totalizator Sportowy is currently prohibited from promoting its Playtech-powered online casino. Online poker is also not yet subject to regulations.
Consequently, H2 estimates that 1.5% of Polish adults have utilized an unlicensed gambling operator at least once per month, and 2.6% have participated in online casino or poker games through offshore websites.
This indicates that over the past year, a total of 1.16 million Polish adults have engaged in unlawful online gaming activities, Henwood stated. Consequently, he suggested that by addressing key concerns, the extent of the unregulated market could be further minimized.
To achieve this, Totalizator Sportowy could be given the authority to promote its casino products, and permitted to incorporate online poker into its existing slot and table game offerings. The turnover tax could also be replaced with a consistent gross revenue rate for all sectors.
This tax adjustment could lead to a surge in tax revenue to 1.8 billion zloty, nearly double the 900 million zloty generated by the Polish Ministry of Finance in 2020.
Despite the substantial number of offshore operations in the market, Polish players who participate in gambling using unauthorized websites could face serious penalties, with fines reaching up to 1 million zloty.
However, if regulations remain unchanged, the market is still projected to experience significant expansion. H2 estimates that the total online and offshore GGR will attain 4.14 billion zloty by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of 12.7% since 2018.
Of this total, 3.24 billion zloty will originate from the regulated market, while an additional 901.3 million zloty will be derived from offshore competitors.
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